Tuesday, June 15, 2010

The oncomming great depression

The market will probably rally strongly in the fourth quarter and the numbers will improve economically but the housing problem will still persist and unless fannie and freddie are improved than we will certainly see a strong decline in late 2011 of great fears of the world not repairing itself.

None the less globally the world will end up expanding and more economies will work efficiently with less workers in the job field.

There will be riots in Egypt with political unrest about their presidential leader refusing to step down and god knows what that will mean for political relations and oil prices.

None the less the world will go on and life will be what it is. My solution to this since there are no guarantees about what will truly happen in this life I believe in Nassim Talebs Black Swan by not buying way out of the money puts and Calls but rather building a book in 3x levered bear stocks and always building it to your portfolio to fit your portfolio size. Rule of thumb is 1/3rd so if your $300,00 portfolio consists of $100,000 than you are properly levered to hedge any downside and profit on the upside.

I'm too tired to explain it but if your really interested contact me or Senor Economics and we will go more in depth.