Friday, November 6, 2009

Jobless rate tops 10 percent for first time since 1983 but how bad is it?

The unemployment rate has finally hit that ultimate number we expected but were all afraid to see the great double digits of 2009 behemoth 10.2% and is the first time in 26 years.

This may come as a shock to only a few as we did have a small decline in the surveyed numbers but if one reads into it, the reason was that unemployment benefits ran out and others have simply given up after nearly a year for many searching for a job.

Close to 16 million people can't find the jobs that they want even though the great recession only beaten by the Great Depression has apparently ended according to GDP data released last week. The Labor Department said Friday that the economy shed a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, less than the downwardly revised 219,000 lost in September. August job losses were also revised lower, to 154,000 from 201,000.

For 22 months in a row the United States economy has shed jobs on a downward spiral, the longest on records dating back 70 years.

Counting those who have settled for part-time jobs or stopped looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest on records dating from 1994 and is the real accurate number of where the economy truly lies.

The rebounding economy is not curing unemployment stats quick enough even with the multi billion dollar stimulus.

As an economist not a writer I agree that the unemployment is the biggest hindirance which if not cured will affect the dollar as the reserve currency as well as halting a large amount of consumer spending, which you probably have heard a gazillion times accounts for 70 percent of the economy. BAM

Here is either the scary part or how lazy some people are because their being picky. The total number of Americans recorded who have been out of work for six months or longer rose to 5.6 million, a record. They comprise 35.6 percent of the unemployed population, matching a record set last month.

Congress sought to address the impact of long-term unemployment this week by approving legislation extending jobless benefits for the fourth time since the recession began. Probably not the best idea since you are encouraging people to get a free ride. If they really wanted a job they would go out and get one. Albeit not their top choice but at least they could feed their kids, stop mooching off of the government, and help the recovery instead of hindering it. This bill would add 14 to 20 extra weeks of aid and is intended to prevent almost 2 million recipients from running out of unemployment insurance during the upcoming holiday season which sounds noble but really isn't when you logically look at the situation. This is creating moral hazard and President Barack Obama is expected to quickly sign the legislation. Trying to help as he is a good man but this really isn't the solution from an educated Economists perspective. Just ask Nouriel Roubini.

Retailers, the financial sector and leisure and hospitality companies all continued to reduce payrolls and upscale hotels like the Four Seasons have been laying off a plethora of their managers to help reduce costs and stay in line with capacity.

The silver lining in all of this temporary employment grew by 33,700 jobs, after losing positions for months. Hopefully the temporary jobs turn into full time and than we can start our road to recovery.


Real Estate The Woodlands said...

It's very bad, I think the impact will take some time to heal and economy is slowly making it's way back but in my opinion, this tough time has given us a lot of think, a lot of learn. We were spending like mad, now we know how to save and spend wisely. How to save on things which are just merely our desires and aren't any necessity. Saving is very important no matter how much you're benefiting from the boom period. Plus some people have found greater ways to earn money like on Internet and have learned more skills to be able to compete with everyone.