Saturday, January 8, 2011

Packers vs Eagles Pick Against the spread

Green Bay Packers (10-6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

NFL Football Point Spread: Eagles -2.5 O/U 46

By: Barrett Kazmerzack of Coopers Sports Picks and NFL Picks
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The Packers and Eagles faced each other in the first game of the season with
Green Bay winning in Philly. In that game Eagles’ starter Kevin Kolb was injured
and Michael Vick came in and almost led them to a win. He missed the last game
of the season with a quad injury in a 14-13 Eagles’ loss to the Dallas Cowboys,
but he will be under center for this game.

Green Bay won their last 2 games including the last one beating the Chicago
Bears 10-3, which gave them one of the NFC Wild Card berths.

The Eagles won the NFC East, but in losing their last 2 games they only
averaged 13.5 ppg. Their offense will be facing a Green Bay defense that has
played great in the last couple games, especially in holding Chicago to only a
field goal in their last game.

Green Bay was a slightly better betting team on the season going 9-7 ATS and
the Eagles were at 7-9 ATS.

While the Packers did beat the Eagles in the first game of the season on the road
they are only 3-5 in away games while Philadelphia is 4-4 at home.

Vick leads a great offense and the Packers and their 5th ranked pass defense
will have to cover the big play guys of Jeremy Maclin and especially DeSean
McCoy, who averaged over 22 yards per catch this season. Vick ran for over 100
yards in the first game between these 2 teams and the Packers need to keep him
in the backfield and now allow him to peel off big runs. LeSean McCoy, who had
over 1,000 rushing yards this season, joins him in the backfield. Green Bay has a
great pass defense, but their run defense only ranks 18th in the league.

One key in this game is the play of the Eagles’ offensive line. The Packers rank
2nd in sacks on the season and they also rank 2nd in INT, so they have to protect
Vick in the pocket.

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers played well to end the season and he is the main
guy the Eagles have to worry about. If the Eagles can contain Rodgers and the
Packers’ 5th ranked passing offense they have a HUGE advantage. The Packers
only have the league’s 24th ranked run defense, but in the 1st game of the season
they rushed for 132 yards and Rodgers was held under 200 passing yards. Still,
Philly has to key on him and not let him beat them with his arm. The Eagles rank
15th in the league in pass and run defense and they rank 11th with 39 sacks.

Green Bay has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when they
were the underdog and Philadelphia is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a
favorite. Both teams can light up the scoreboard, but Green Bay has an Under
record of 7-1 in their last 8 road games and Philadelphia has an Under record of
5-0-1 in their last 6 home games. I would stay away from the Over/Under bet in
this game, as it can really go either way.

Pick: The Eagles are the favorites, but I do not think their D can contain Rodgers.
On top of that the Packers’ solid defense will keep Vick from having a big game.
Take Green Bay to win again in Philly and move on to the next round of the
playoffs in a minor upset.